As you know I am no friend of long time prognoses into new territories. But this time I studied the change in splitting total ad revenue in "old" and "new" to compare of how media companies prepare for the feature ... the complete table you find here (PDF)
Lets look just on 4 categories and the development Jack estimates
Newspaper
- Digital share 2020: 38.6 % [2010: 9.9 %]
Consumer Mags
- Digital share 2020: 27.9 % [2010: 6.0 %]
B2B Mags
- Digital share 2020: 23.4 % [2010: 5.7 %]
Custom Publishing
- Digital share 2020: 81.0 % [2010: 9.9 %]
Source: Jack Myers Media Business Report © copyright 2011
I think, that his prognoses on Digital Advertising Revenue by 2020 are quite underestimated - we will check the development year by year.
