Freitag, August 22, 2008

We all Know that Advertising Forecast Are for Suckers

... but still companies and the media are 'buying' this reports. The higher the figures, the better. On this blog we point to them, ... (but don't buy them).

David Koretz on MediaPost's Online Publishing Insider takes on the prediction madness for 'US Mobile Advertising' as one example

- Forrester Research started off last year predicting for 2012 less than 1 Mrd. USD
- Kelsey Group topped this prediction with 1, 4 Mrd. USD for 2012 (September 2007)
- eMarketer predicted 6, 5 Mrd. USD for 2012

David reminds us to follow three great and simple rules, if we want to assess a market's potential

1. Value
Value is measured as cost vs. return and NOT a function of cost

2. Venture Capital / Investors
Expectation and success of an industry / company can not be measured, should not be based on one ore a few investors (often wrong or with a hidden agenda)

3. Disclosed and understandable Algorithm
Understand how and assess whether the forcaster's & consulter understand something about how the market is functioning

(and I would add: 4. The Media - which doesn't follow this three and other basic rules)

via / more

Früherer Eintrag:
2007 was not ‘the year of mobile marketing'