Dienstag, Juni 16, 2009

PwC: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2009-2013

Nachtrag:
Hier gibt es jetzt auch die deutsche Pressemitteilung


From the Press release (16-June-2009)

"... The global entertainment & media market as a whole, including both consumer and advertising spending will grow by 2.7 per cent compounded annually for the entire forecast period to $1.6 trillion in 2013. Initially we expect to see a 3.9 per cent drop in 2009 and a mere 0.4 per cent advance in 2010, with a period of much faster growth during the remaining period to 7.1 per cent in 2013. What we are sure about is that this recession will last longer than previous ones due to a steeper downturn and that the impact on consumer spending will be much steeper than in the past. E&M is not immune to that trend - consumer spending in E&M will fall by a projected 1.2 per cent in 2009, remaining weak in 2010 and seeing only relatively low growth at 3.2 per cent in 2011 ..."

Advertising expected to be down global between 12 - 13 %, some market up to - 20 %. PwC predicts that advertising in 2010 slightly, but might never reach the level it had before ...

Release: No place to hide from the digital revolution

Information on Report (600+ pg.) / Executive Summary (100 pg.)

Video: Marcel Fenez with the major trends from the 2009 Outlook

Even, if you close your eyes ... migration to digitization and user on the drivers seat will not go away. You better adapt!

Afterthoughts:
Can you, should you plan on the medium-term forecast beyond 2011?
An easy way to check the probability and planning reliability of PwC's forecast for 2013 would be to check the PwC Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2005 - 2009 and compare forecast vs. expected /actual results 2009.

[My calculation looks like this: The report 2005 - 2009 expected the The global entertainment & media market to be 1.8 trillion USD for 2009; from my reverse calculation PwC now expect this figure to be about 1,4 trillion USD, which is 20,6 % less. The new promise vor 2013 is 1.6 trillion USD ... ]