Dienstag, Juni 12, 2012

PwC's Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2012 - 2016

The challenge for media companies now lies in how to implement their digital strategies (if they have any), says Marcel Fenez, introducing the PwC's Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2012 - 2016.

Is these now the end of the digital revolution - but maybe there was no revolution (within the Media Industry) as many publishers were waited too long and some are still waiting, for the free tickets, the free lunch - or the end of the digital beginning, the "loss of innocence" for financial professionals, controllers, journalists, marketers, sales, etc. trying, without the faintest idea of media technology, programming and systems, to run a media service company nowadays?

Key stats from PwC’s Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2012-2016

- Global spending: Over the next five years, global spending on entertainment and media is projected to rise from USD 1.6 trillion in 2011 to USD 2.1 trillion in 2016, a 5.7 % compound annual advance. This growth lags some way behind below the projected 6.6 % compound annual increase in nominal GDP over the same period, reflecting the ongoing shift from higher-priced physical distribution to lower-priced digital distribution.

- Largest 13 E&M markets: There were 13 countries in 2011 with total E&M spending (combined advertising and consumer/end-user revenues) above USD 25 bn, led by the United States at USD 464 bn, Japan at USD 193 bn, China at USD 109 bn, and Germany at USD 99 bn. China passed Germany in 2011 to become the third largest E&M market in the world. Of the leading countries, China and Brazil will be the fastest growing with projected compound annual increases of 12.0 % and 10.6 %, respectively. Brazil overtook South Korea in 2011 to move into ninth place, and during the next five years will pass Canada and Italy to become the seventh largest market.

- Advertising spending: The most cyclically sensitive E&M spending stream, advertising spending increased by 3.6 % in 2011. This represented a slowdown from the 7.0 % gain in 2010 that was augmented by advertising associated with the FIFA World Cup and Winter Olympics, and by the rebound from a sluggish 2009. In spite of growth during the past two years, advertising still remained lower in 2011 than in 2007, the beginning of the Outlook’s reported period. Overall global advertising will increase at a 6.4 % compound annual rate from USD 486 bn in 2011 to USD 661 bn in 2016.

- Advertising segment growth: Internet advertising will be the fastest-growing advertising category with a 15.9 % compound annual increase, followed by the small video games advertising market, at 11.2 %. Television advertising will average 6.6 % compounded annually through 2016, out-of-home advertising will grow at a projected 5.0 % compound annual rate, followed by radio at 3.8 % compounded annually. The print segments—newspapers, consumer magazines, trade magazines, and directories—will average less than 3.5 % compounded annually.

- Consumer/end-user spending: Overall consumer/end-user spending will rise from USD 802 bn in 2011 to USD 966 bn in 2016, a 3.8 % compound annual increase. Video games are expected to rebound and become the fastest-growing segment of consumer/end-user spending during the next five years with a 7.0 % compound annual increase, followed by TV subscriptions and license fees at 6.2 % compounded annually. The remaining segments (see notes) will grow at rates of 4 % or less.

-  Internet access spending: Internet access -whether wired or mobile - is not an entertainment and media segment in itself, but is a fee to access content and is a key driver of entertainment and media spending in most segments. Global Internet access spending will rise from USD 317 bn in 2011 to USD 493 bn in 2016, a 9.3 % compound annual increase.

-  Mobile Internet access: Spending on mobile access increased from 26 % of total global Internet access spending in 2007 to 40 % in 2011and will account for 46 % in 2016, almost catching up with wired access spending.

- Consumer magazines: Overall global spending declined during the past four years, although annual decreases in 2010–11 were less than 1 %. The market is expected to begin to increase in 2012, averaging 1.3 % compounded annually to USD 80 bn in 2016 from USD 75 bn in 2011.

- Consumer and educational books: global spending on electronic books will rise at a CAGR of 30.3 % to USD 20.8 bn in 2016, taking electronic books’ share of total global book spending from 4.9 % in 2011 to 17.9 % in 2016.

-  Out-of-home advertising: Indonesia, Russia, and India will be the fastest-growing countries for out-of-home spending through 2016, with CAGRs of 11.2 %, 11.0 %, and 10.9 %, respectively.

Download the PwC press release (PDF)