Posts mit dem Label Forecast werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
Posts mit dem Label Forecast werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen

Mittwoch, Februar 25, 2009

VSS 22. Communications Industry Forecast 2009 revised

this are the updated projections for 2009 (within the 2008-2012 Forecast)

Overall Media Spend from plus 5.4 % to minus 0,4 %

Overall advertising from flat to minus 7.4 %

Newspaper down to minus 16.2 %

Broadcast / television down to minus 9 %

Consumer magazines down to minus 8.5 %

via / more at

Earlier entry (06-Aug-2008)
VSS 22. Communications Industry Forecast 2008-2012 Out

Freitag, August 22, 2008

We all Know that Advertising Forecast Are for Suckers

... but still companies and the media are 'buying' this reports. The higher the figures, the better. On this blog we point to them, ... (but don't buy them).

David Koretz on MediaPost's Online Publishing Insider takes on the prediction madness for 'US Mobile Advertising' as one example

- Forrester Research started off last year predicting for 2012 less than 1 Mrd. USD
- Kelsey Group topped this prediction with 1, 4 Mrd. USD for 2012 (September 2007)
- eMarketer predicted 6, 5 Mrd. USD for 2012

David reminds us to follow three great and simple rules, if we want to assess a market's potential

1. Value
Value is measured as cost vs. return and NOT a function of cost

2. Venture Capital / Investors
Expectation and success of an industry / company can not be measured, should not be based on one ore a few investors (often wrong or with a hidden agenda)

3. Disclosed and understandable Algorithm
Understand how and assess whether the forcaster's & consulter understand something about how the market is functioning

(and I would add: 4. The Media - which doesn't follow this three and other basic rules)

via / more

Früherer Eintrag:
2007 was not ‘the year of mobile marketing'

Mittwoch, August 06, 2008

VSS 22. Communications Industry Forecast 2008-2012 Out

some good and some not so good prognoses from Veronis Suhler Stevenson:

Total communications spending is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 6.1% from 2007- 2012 to $1.2 trillion, fueled by continued growth in institutional (+ 8.5%) and alternative media (+21.0%) offseting the downward pressure of declining traditional advertising spending

Total communications spending is projected to grow 5.4% to $923.91 billion in 2008, driven by strong gains in institutional and alternative media spending

Total consumer spending on media is expected to increase 6.1% in 2008 to $218.37 billion, according to the VSS Forecast.

Consumer media use declined slightly in 2007 as some platforms near saturation, while institutional media use increased due to mission-critical information demand

Broadcast TV will surpass newspapers as the largest ad medium in 2008, while total Internet ad spend will surpass broadcast TV in 2011

Traditional ad spending will essentially remain flat from 2007 to 2012. Its share of overall advertising and marketing spending will drop 16 points in 10 years to 31.5% in 2012, compared with a 47.1% share in 2002 ...

Some more from the VSS release (5-Aug-2008)

VSS Prognoses by Industry Sectors


VSS Prognoses by Industry Segments

VSS data from 2007
VSS 21st Communications Industry Forecast: Internet Ad Spending Will Overtake Newspaper 2011

Dienstag, August 05, 2008

Juniper Research: in 2013 werden rund 2,1 Mrd. Mobiltelefonnutzer mit ihrem Mobile bezahlen

Nach der heute veröffentlichten, globalen Studie zum Mobile Payment Markt werden bis 2013 rund 2,1 Mrd. Mobile Subscriber für Digitale Güter per Mobile zahlen, die sie auf ihr Mobile herunterladen. Das seien u.a. für Musik, Tickets, Video, Infotainment und Games.

Hier ein paar Highlights aus der Studie

Highlights from the report include:
• Users are forecast to make at least two payment transactions per month for digital goods by 2013
• typical transactions size will be between 3 - 5 USD
• Nearly half of all mobile phone users will have bought digital goods at least once with their phones by 2013
• The two leading regions (Western Europe and Far East & China) will account for over 50% of the total digital goods gross transaction market value by 2013

Remote Payments for Digital Goods 2008 - 2013

Whitepaper: Transaction Approved - Pay by Mobile (PDF, via Website, nach Registrierung)

Whitepaper: The Mobile Wallet
(PDF, via Website, nach Registrierung)

Donnerstag, Juli 24, 2008

Mobile Marketing Trends 2008

der Mobile Research Guide 2008 von den Kollegen Kirchner + Robrecht macht 10 (wichtige) Trends im Mobilen Internet aus. Digital:next nennt sie ... via/hier

Dafür haben die Marktforscher 56 Studien ausgewertet. Ob die 'gefühlte' K+R Mitte die wahrscheinliche Zukunft ist oder jedenfalls nahe kommt? Die Varianzen sind nicht gerade klein ... so soll die Welt in Deutschland (bzw. das Werbevolumen weltweit) im Jahre 2011 aussehen:

Hier könn(t)en Sie den Mobile Research Guide 2008 (kostenpflichtig) downloaden .

Meine Meinung zu der gefühlten Zukunft in 2011 (zu den gewählten Beispielen) :
Ziemlich weit daneben!

Andere Mobile Themen auf diesem Blog.

Donnerstag, Juni 19, 2008

PWC Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2008 - 2012 is Out

The PriceWaterhouseCoopers entertainment and media industry forecast 2008 - 2012 has been released yesterday. The outlook forecast covers the US, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Canada with in-depth global analyses and five-year growth projections for 15 industry segments

Internet access spending: wired and mobile
Internet advertising: wired and mobile
TV subscriptions and license fees
Television advertising
Recorded music
Filmed entertainment
Video games
Consumer magazine publishing
Newspaper publishing
Radio and out-of-home advertising
Theme parks and amusement parks
Casino and other regulated gaming
Consumer and educational book publishing
Business-to-business publishing

From the results: (US)

- PWC Outlook on newspapers didn't get any better, they forecast another decrease of 4 % until 2012 to 53.000 Mio. USD

- PWC's forecast on consumer mags with compound plus 3,8 % per year (is higher than you should expect and plan with). It includes an increase in ad revenue on magazine websites from 342 Mio. USD (2007) to 2.400 Mio. USD in 2012 - plus 602 %

PWC predicts for b2b publishing during the periode a compound growth of 2,6 % to 94.000 Mio. USD (from 82.800 Mio. in 2007)

all other short summaries and how to buy the full reports / or segments you find here

PWC Press release [EN] [DE]

Last years entry:

PwC Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2007-2011 Out

You can still access some 2007 - 2011 special country edition
e.g. Germany (in German)

e.g. India (English)

Sonntag, April 27, 2008

Forrester: Global Enterprise Web 2.0 Market Forecast 2007 To 2013

Forrester has released a new report / forecast on Enterprise Web 2.0 market until 2013 ...

Adaption of Web 2.0 Tools

Spend by Technology employed

via Jeremiah Owyang

You might also like to see why Dennis Howlett writes
The problem with Forrester’s $4.6 billion prediction

Sonntag, April 13, 2008

Mobile Search Forecasts 2008-2013

Direct revenue will grow from 1.5 Mrd. USD to 4.8 Mrd. USD in 2013, an average annual growth rate of 27 %. The strongest performer will be general web search and local search.

Forecast in Mio. USD according to Juniper Research

More Information / Whitepaper

Mobile Entertainment Markets: Opportunities & Forecasts 2007-2012

Mobile Entertainment Product Forecast 2007 - 2012 in Mio. USD

authored by Windsor Holden, Juniper Research has released its 2nd edition of the Mobile Entertainment Market report ... more / Whitepaper

Früherer Eintrag:
2007 was not ‘the year of mobile marketing'

Samstag, März 29, 2008

2007 was not ‘the year of mobile marketing'

and 2008 won’t be either, says eMarketer’s John du Pre Gauntt, "text-message–based campaigns will dominate" and as "most mobile users are still paying for nearly all their data services, making them even less likely to welcome advertising on their phones" ...

via eMarketer

new report Mobile Advertising: After the Growing Pains

Why '08 Isn't Mobile's Year -- Again
by Alice Z. Cuneo on Ad Age

- Reach (or lack thereof)
- Measurement
- Complexity
- The misnomer of mobile as ad medium
- There's been no hallelujah moment

and how to fix that, maybe..

Dienstag, März 04, 2008

eMarketer: Video Game Advertising Forecast 2007 - 2012

- US in-game advertising spending will increase from 295 million in 2007 to 650 million USD or plus 120 % in 2012.

- US in Web-based games /advergames — including sponsored sessions and display ads in or around the online game space will increas 133% from 207 million to 482 million USD between 2007 and 2012.


More at eMarketer

PQ Media Branded Entertainment Forecast 2008-2012

Die vergangenen Jahre haben dem Sektor ein hohes Wachstum um 15 % beschert ...

Auch für die nächsten fünf Jahre prognostiziert PQ Media ein zweistelliges Wachstum für die Periode 2008 - 2012, mit durchschnittlich 12,8 % Wachstum auf über 40 Mrd. USD in 2012. Den Rückgang der Wachstumraten ab 2009 erklärt PQ Media zunächst mit konjukturellen Gründen und dann verstärkt damit, dass die Anbieter mehr und mehr direkte Interaktion mit dem Konsumer setzen würden.

Den Report kann man hier kaufen, gegen Abgabe der eMail Adresse gibt es ein kurzes Summary (PDF)

Vielleicht noch interessant für den ein oder anderen Besucher, was unter die Kategorie 'Branded Entertainment' gezählt wird

Event Sponsorship
Event Marketing
Product Placement

Donnerstag, Dezember 06, 2007

The Crystal Ball: Werbeausgaben USA 2007

Auch kurz vor Jahresschluss unterscheiden sich die Prognosen noch deutlich. Wie schwer man sich mit Prognosen tut, die die Zukunft betreffen, zeigt der Vergleich mit Universal McCann's Robert Coen's Vorhersage vor 12 Monaten: da waren es noch plus 4,8 Prozent für 2007 ... Mitte des Jahres (August) 3 % ...

Nach Robert Coen's Prognose, er sieht das Wachstum in 2007 (US) jetzt bei plus 0,7 Prozent, d.h. deutlich unterhalb der Inflationsrate und der GDP von ca. 4,8 Prozent und ZenithOptimedia (US plus 2,5 Prozent) hat jetzt auch Group M seine Prognose veröffentlich und liegt mit plus 2,8 Prozent 0, 3 Punkte höher als ZenithOptimedia (siehe auch Global Ad Spending Forecast).

Group M's Report sieht den Anteil von Anzeigenwerbung in Digital Media bereits 2008 bei über 10 Prozent, ZenithOptimedia erst in 2009 ... mehr auf und (2)

Mittwoch, Dezember 05, 2007

Gobal Ad Spending and Share 2006 - 2010

Data from ZenithOptimedia via

As this represents a globale view, higher growth in some regions means, lower growth or decline in other regions.

Source: Marketingcharts

Later: Some more data at
ZenithOptimedia Ad-spend forecast (3-Dec-2007, PDF)

Later: I asked ZenithOptimedia to explain what kind of Internet advertising the include, Display ads, Search ads, affiliate ... Here is Anne's answer:

"The total global figure is a simple sum of the figures we have for all the different markets reporting to us. However, these vary in what they measure. In the full publication, we include notes with each entry to explain what is and is not included in each market's figures. Usually display is included, and often search or sponsorship etc., but as there is no international standard for measuring online spend we cannot fully homogenise the report."

Samstag, November 10, 2007

Tomorrow-Focus prognostiziert hohes Wachstum für Mobile Marketing

Im Internet Business zieht 'Normalität' ein - auch wenn Old Media noch hinterher hinkt - und so präsentiert die Tomorrow-Focus AG auf den 21. Medientagen in München eine Analyse zur Zukunft von Mobile Marketing in Deutschland und ein/ihr neues, attraktives Geschäftsfeld.


Die TFAG prognostiziert für Deutschland einen Anstieg der Aufwendungen (brutto) für Mobile Marketing von 119 Mio. Euro (2007) auf 640 Mio. Euro in 2011 - was einer durchschnittlichen, jährlichen Wachstumsrate von etwa 60% entspricht.

Ob die Aufteilung der Aufwendungen in den Kategorien den aktuellen Möglichkeiten und des Geschäftsangebots des Vermarkters folgt, W.C. - jedenfalls nicht im wahren Leben. Z.B. werden Search und Affiliate Marketing m. E. deutlich unterschätzt.


Demnächst sicher auch auf Presse | Studien

(Cross-posting auf Hugo E. Martin on Mobile)

Dienstag, August 07, 2007

VSS 21st Communications Industry Forecast: Internet Ad Spending Will Overtake Newspaper 2011

Veronis Suhler Stevenson (VSS) projects that ad spending on Internet will reach USD 61.98 billion, and will surpass newspapers to become the (US) nation's leading ad medium in 2011, in its 21st Communications Industry Forecast.

According to the VSS Forecast, which was prepared in part using proprietary data from PQ Media's Alternate Media Outlook:

- Ad spending on pure-play Internet sites reached USD 15.1 billion for 2006, and is projected to hit USD 34.78 billion in 2011, for a CAGR of 18.2%.

- Growth of 25.79% is projected for ad spending on traditional media-based Internet sites, which hit USD 8.585 billion in 2006, and is projected to reach USD 27.2 billion in 2011.

- National Internet advertising, which includes search, display, sponsorships, etc., is projected to remain the dominant dollar-generator with USD 38.897 billion forecast for 2011, representing an 18.2% CAGR from 2006-2011.

- Blog, podcast and RSS advertising is projected to reach USD 1.138 billion by 2011, registering the fastest growth rate at a 70.9% CAGR forecast from 2006-2011.

more on / via Online Media Daily (MediaPostPublication)

more from VSS

Mittwoch, Juli 11, 2007

GroupM: Russian Ad Market Forecast 2007-2008

GroupM forecasts high growth in ad spending in Russia:

plus 26 % in 2007
plus 21 % in 2008

more at marketingvox

Freitag, Juni 22, 2007

PwC Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2007-2011 Out

Yesterday PriceWaterhouseCoopers released there forecast 2007 - 2011 - the message is like last year 'growth' (what else). High growth for Digital Internet, TV distribution and video games (suprise, suprice) ... driven bei the BRIC's (which stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China). It is their eighth annual edition, containing in-depth analyses and forecasts of 14 major industry segments across five regions of the globe.

Outlook 2007 - 2011 Landing page

From the release:

Internet Advertising and Access Spending
"The global Internet market rose 21.8%, the fastest-growing segment in 2006 and the fourth consecutive increase in excess of 20%. Advertising rose 37.9% and access spending increased 18.8%. The migration of Internet subscribers from dial-up to broadband is the principal driver. Cable operators and telephone companies have introduced triple play packages that combine broadband with television and telephone service. Globally, Internet advertising and access spending is expected to grow from $177 billion in 2006 to $332 billion in 2011, a 13.4% CAGR."

Television Distribution
"The global television distribution market, the second fastest growing segment, increased by 9.4% in 2006, an improvement compared with the 6.5% increase in 2005. Aggressive roll-out of Internet protocol television from telephone companies is stimulating competition and fuelling subscriber growth. Cable operators are migrating their subscribers to digital platforms that not only boost monthly subscription revenues but also expand the market for video-on-demand. Mobile television is emerging as an important distribution channel, particularly in Asia Pacific, boosted by new service rollouts and enhanced wireless devices. Globally, the television distribution market will increase from $161 billion in 2006 to $251 billion in 2011, a 9.3% CAGR.

Video Games
"The introduction of the new generation of video game consoles and the associated increase in video game software purchases for those consoles boosted spending by 14.3% in 2006. New Internet-enabled consoles and growing broadband penetration will spur growth in the online game market while next-generation wireless devices will drive demand for wireless games. Globally, video game spending is expected to rise from $32 billion in 2006 to $49 billion in 2011, a 9.1% CAGR."


Auf der Germany Site von PwC gibt es den Text auch in deutscher Sprache, inkl eines Abschnitts
Printmedien: Zeitungen, Zeitschriften und Bücher
Der Umsatz der Printmedien wird bis 2011 weltweit weiterhin nur langsam wachsen. Dennoch bleiben Zeitungen, Magazine und Bücher mit einem geschätzten Gesamterlös von rund 463 Milliarden US-Dollar ein Standbein der Medienbranche. Aufgrund der steigenden Bedeutung des Internets als Informations- und Unterhaltungsmedium sinken jedoch die Anzeigenerlöse. Elektronische Datenbanken und E-Books bremsen den Markt für Fachbücher und Fachzeitschriften. Für den Zeitungsmarkt wird ein jährliches Umsatzwachstum von 2,1 Prozent auf knapp 201 Milliarden US-Dollar im Jahr 2011 erwartet, im gleichen Zeitraum dürften die Zeitschriftenerlöse um 3,1 Prozent auf gut 117 Milliarden und der Buchumsatz um 3,6 Prozent auf 144,6 Milliarden US-Dollar zulegen.

Sonntag, April 29, 2007

Blogs, Pods and Feed Deliver Advertising to Dedicated Users

via Center for Media Research 'Research Brief' (29-April-2007):

"PQ Media's Alternative Media Research Series, the Blog, Podcast and RSS Advertising Outlook, reports that advertising spending on user-generated online media - blogs, podcasts and RSS - did not begin until 2002, but this combined spending has grown to $20.4 million by the end or 2005, a 198.4% increase over the 2004 level. Spending on blog, podcast and RSS advertising is projected to climb another 144.9% in 2006 to $49.8 million ..."

Some more quotes:

- Blog advertising accounted for 81.4%, or $16.6 million, of total spending on user-generated online media in 2005, but blog ads will comprise only 39.7%, or $300.4 million, of overall spending in 2010

- Podcast advertising totaled only $3.1 million in 2005, but is projected to reach $327.0 million in 2010, when it will account for 43.2% of all user-generated media advertising

- Spending on RSS advertising totaled $650,000 in 2005 and will grow to $129.6 million in 2010

- Total spending on user-generated online media is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 106.1% from 2005 to 2010, reaching $757.0 million in 2010

Executive Summary (PDF, after registration)

Dienstag, April 03, 2007

Zenith Trims Outlook for North America Ad Spending

"The shift in publishers' investment from print to the internet now leads us to expect no growth from newspapers in the U.S. this year, and less growth from magazines than we forecast in December, ..."

says ZenithOptimedia more at